ISHIK2023
Title：The “Long Wave Effect” of Education Reform in the 1950s and 1970s: Demographic Dividend, Industrialization and Long-Term Economic Growth
発表者：邓宏图1,2、赵燕1,2、 徐宝亮3 （Hongtu DENG1,2、Yan ZHAO1,2、Baoliang XU3）
所属：1广州大学新结构经济学研究中心、2广州大学经济与统计学院、3南昌大学经济管理学院（1New structural economics research center, Guangzhou University ／ 2School of economics and statistics, Guangzhou University ／ 3School of economics and management, Nanchang University）
キーワード：人口红利, 普及教育, 人力资本, 经济增长
Keywords：demographic dividend, universal education, human capital, economic growth Abstract
要旨：
本文主要探讨建国以来的劳动力要素对中国改革开放后经济快速增长的重要贡献,在同时考虑了劳动力数量和质量两个方面后,对改革开放以来的 “人口红利”进行了经济史视角的逻辑解构。“人口红利”的形成与中国上世纪50年代开始并持续到七十年代末期的普及基础教育有关,基础教育普及提供了价格低廉且能够伴随产业升级提升自身技能的“学习型”劳动力,为改革开放后的长期经济增长提供了坚实的人才支持,并影响着改革开放后的工业化结构及其发展趋势。建国初至改革开放之前的普及教育使该时期接受过基础教育的劳动力成为中国改革开放后不可或缺的极关键力量,作为过渡和转轨的一代,他们的人力资本禀赋特征使得他们在改革开放后的三四十年发挥着不可替代的作用, 促进了市场化经济的深度和广度并实现了长时段的、 持续性的高速增长。本文从“人口红利”的形成机制、人力资本结构和基础教育下人力资本的跨世代形成等多个角度剖析了改革开放以来中国经济增长奇迹的历史诱因。
Abstract：
This paper focuses on the important contribution of the labor factor to China’s rapid economic growth after the reform and opening up of the country, and logically deconstructs the “demographic dividend” from the perspective of economic history after taking into account both the quantity and quality of the labor force since the reform and opening up of the country. The formation of the “demographic dividend” is related to the universalization of basic education that started in the 1950s and lasted until the end of the 1970s. The universalization of basic education provided a “learning” labor force that was inexpensive and able to upgrade its skills along with industrial upgrading, which contributed to the long-term economic growth after the reform and opening up. This has provided solid talent support for the long-term economic growth after the reform and opening-up, and has influenced the structure of industrialization and its development trend after the reform and opening-up. The universal education from the beginning of the founding of the PRC to the period before the reform and opening up has made the labor force with basic education in that period an indispensable key force after China’s reform and opening up. As a generation of transition and change of track, the characteristics of their human capital endowment have made them play an irreplaceable role in the three to four decades after the reform and opening up, which has contributed to the depth and breadth of the market-oriented economy and realized a long period of sustained high-speed growth. This paper analyzes the historical causes of China’s economic growth miracle since the reform and opening-up from the perspectives of the formation mechanism of the “demographic dividend”, human capital structure, and cross-generational formation of human capital under basic education.